Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 23rd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Manchester by the Sea, 20th Century Women

This year’s locks: Lady Bird, Get Out, The Shape of Water

Very likely: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Possible: The Big Sick, The Post, I, Tonya, Phantom Thread, Darkest Hour

Unlikely: Dunkirk, The Florida Project, Downsizing, Baby Driver

The rundown: This category essentially has six contenders vying for five slots. Get Out and The Big Sick were omitted from the Golden Globes’ single-screenplay category, but they joined the other four in the Critics Choice lineup. Lady Bird and The Shape of Water are sure things, while Globe winner Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri may be subject to backlash against the film but should be fine. I think that The Post will just miss, especially since it’s fending off legitimate competition from I, Tonya, Phantom Thread, and Darkest Hour, three films that could have strong or minimal receptions from Oscar voters overall. I don’t think Dunkirk will make the cut, but it’s always possible if voters are gung-ho about the film.

One possible crazy scenario: It hasn’t really shown up anywhere else, but The Killing of a Sacred Deer writers Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthymis Filippou were nominated last year for “The Lobster,” a movie that only showed up in this category. It could only get nominated if voters liked it much more than I did.

Forecasted winner: I feel like this is an easy place to reward Get Out or “Lady Bird.”