Oscar Predictions: Best Foreign Film

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 23rd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Land of Mine (Denmark), A Man Called Ove (Sweden), The Salesman (Iran), Tanna (Australia), Toni Erdmann (Germany)

This year’s locks: In the Fade (Germany), The Square (Sweden)

Very likely: A Fantastic Woman (Chile)

Possible: Loveless (Russia), Foxtrot (Israel), The Insult (Lebanon), On Body and Soul (Hungary), The Wound (South Africa), Félicité (Senegal)

The rundown: I’ve seen three of these films, and I’m predicting them all to make the cut: Golden Globe winner In the Fade (Germany), Cannes champ The Square (Sweden), and Israel’s submission, Foxtrot (Israel). I’m assuming that it will be joined by Golden Globe nominees A Fantastic Woman (Chile) and Loveless (Russia), both of which will be released in February and which I hope to see closer to that time. The Insult (Lebanon), which opened recently, has a lot of buzz, and On Body and Soul (Hungary), might show up too since its country has been nominated a number of time. I’m less optimistic about The Wound (South Africa), whose submitting nation has been nominated twice, and Félicité (Senegal), from a country that has never been nominated, but they could easily show up. It’s difficult to predict this category even if you’ve seen all the films.

Forecasted winner: I think that In the Fade can win but who the hell knows?