Oscar Predictions: Best Documentary

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 23rd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Fire at Sea, I Am Not Your Negro, Life, Animated, OJ: Made in America, 13th

This year’s locks: None

Very likely: An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power, Last Men in Aleppo

Possible: Faces Places, One of Us, Jane, LA 92, City of Ghosts, Chasing Coral, Human Flow, Icarus, Abacus: Small Enough to Jail, Ex Libris – The New Your Public Library, Strong Island, Unrest, Long Strange Trip

The rundown: I find this category exceedingly difficult to predict, and it doesn’t matter that I’ve only seen one of the fifteen finalists in contention. Most of this is just guesswork, but An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power feels like a solid bet given that its predecessor took home this award in 2006 and other sequels have gone on to be nominated in recent years. Last Men in Aleppo has earned a lot of buzz, as have Faces Places and Jane. The one film I have seen, One of Us, was a hit and comes from the filmmakers of previous nominee “Jesus Camp.” From there, anything is possible, with LA 92, City of Ghosts, and Chasing Coral striking me as the likeliest to disrupt my predicted list.

Forecasted winner: Maybe Faces Places? I have no clue – I’ll need to see the films first.