Oscar Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 23rd. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Mahershala Ali, Jeff Bridges, Lucas Hedges, Dev Patel, Michael Shannon

This year’s locks: Willem Dafoe, Sam Rockwell

Very likely: Richard Jenkins

Possible: Armie Hammer, Michael Shannon, Woody Harrelson, Christopher Plummer, Michael Stuhlbarg

Unlikely: Ben Mendelsohn, Mark Rylance

The rundown: This category is a tough one to predict, with a few sure things and then anyone’s guess as to what combination of nominees will ensue. That’s mainly because there are three films with two actors who could all make it: Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri) and Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri), Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name) and Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name), and Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water) and Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water). The only one who’s a lock is Rockwell, and I feel like Jenkins should be set, especially given his film’s popularity. Stuhlbarg was the early favorite but I think this chances are much weaker now that his film hasn’t performed as well as expected, and Hammer should still get in, though he could just as easily be snubbed. I’m predicting that Shannon will make the cut for the third time with few to no precursors, something he pulled off last year for “Nocturnal Animals.” Given that it’s likely to be Oscar voters’ favorite film, I’m betting on his inclusion, even though his previous two nominations were essentially lone bids for those movies. Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project) will definitely lead the nominees, and I’m even predicting that his film will show up in the top categories. Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World) has the respect of voters, winning this award six years ago, and his impressive substitution for Kevin Spacey may not go unnoticed. I think the film broke way too late though, and he won’t make the cut. If his film lands in a big way, Ben Mendelsohn (Darkest Hour) could show up, and bringing back past winner Mark Rylance (Dunkirk) wouldn’t be shocking either.

One possible crazy scenario: He’s received a few mentions – could Barry Keoghan (The Killing of a Sacred Deer) show up for a creepy turn in a truly disturbing movie?

Forecasted winner: I’m betting on Dafoe though I recognize that Rockwell may have pulled ahead.