SAG Predictions

The Golden Globe nominations came out yesterday, delivering with them a few surprise inclusions - namely “All the Money in the World” - and some unfortunate omissions, which we’ll get to in a minute. The Screen Actors Guild nominees will be announced tomorrow, but it’s not as if the groups actually influence each other. In the past, we’ve seen “The Martian” and “All is Lost” shut out by SAG and then rewarded by the Globes, whereas “The Butler” was a big player with SAG and received nothing from the Globes or the Oscars. New contenders are sometimes introduced by SAG, while others, like Bradley Cooper, Michael Shannon, and a few foreign nominees, haven’t shown up until the Oscar nominations announcement.

The biggest thing that differentiates SAG from the Globes is that it combines comedy and drama into one category for the lead acting races. Practically this gives us two nominees apiece from the comedy races: James Franco and Daniel Kaluuya in Best Actor, and Margot Robbie and Saoirse Ronan for Best Actress. Whether Denzel Washington and Jessica Chastain will go the distance is a question that may be partially answered, and we’ll see if Michelle Williams was a fluke or a legitimate contender. Hopefully we’ll see Jake Gyllenhaal in Best Actor for “Stronger,” but the question is who he’ll bump - Hanks or Day-Lewis? I feel like Kate Winslet could show up here for “Wonder Wheel” but I’m not confident about it. In Best Supporting Actor, I’d love to say that Michael Shannon is in, but I feel like Woody Harrelson is the more SAG-like choice, reminiscent of when Don Cheadle and Tommy Lee Jones joined their Oscar-nominated costars in “Crash” and “No Country for Old Men,” respectively. In Best Supporting Actress, I’m pulling for Melissa Leo, but I think that Mary J. Blige is probably more likely at this point. And then there’s Best Ensemble. In past years, we’ve seen inventive nominees like “Captain Fantastic,” “Trumbo,” “Beasts of No Nation,” “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel,” and “Bridesmaids.” If I’m really thinking about it, “The Disaster Artist” could be one of those this year, as could “I, Tonya,” but I’m going to go ahead and predict yesterday’s big snub, “The Big Sick,” to join “Mudbound” and the three top Golden Globe nominations getters, leaving “Call Me By Your Name” out in the cold. I could be very, very wrong, but this is what I’m going with. Reactions tomorrow - comment today below!

Best Male Actor in a Leading Role
Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
Gary Oldman (Phantom Thread)

Best Female Actor in a Leading Role
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Meryl Streep (The Post)

Best Male Actor in a Supporting Role
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Best Female Actor in a Supporting Role
Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Best Ensemble in a Motion Picture
The Big Sick
Mudbound
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri