Final Golden Globe Predictions

For the first time, I feel like I really know what’s going on and have a good handle on what these nominees could be. That might be because I’m paying attention – carefully reviewing announcements of critics’ awards and other groups – but also because I’ve seen more of these contenders at this point than I have in the past. That said, there are always big surprises, but I’m trying to be more realistic with my predictions and less optimistic. As a result, I’m making a few modifications to my predictions. I’m swapping out Denzel Washington for a contender I haven’t seen, Daniel Day-Lewis. I’ll be slightly too optimistic and add in Zoe Kazan in place of Salma Hayek, who appears to have switched categories to the drama race. My screenplay predictions didn’t include either “Call Me By Your Name” or “Get Out,” but I’ve included them both now. One big unknown is “Downsizing,” which could play well, and the same might be true of “The Greatest Showman.” “Mudbound” might also rebound, though I don’t think so, and a film like “Darkest Hour” could show up in a number of categories despite lackluster expectations from most. I’m still betting on Armie Hammer over Michael Stuhlbarg for Best Supporting Actor, and I think that “The Shape of Water” is going to do very well, earning two nominations in that category. I’m not sure whether to bet on Greta Gerwig or Jordan Peele for Best Director, and I’m going with the former even though the latter seems to be immensely popular to my continued bewilderment. I’m mostly ignoring “The Florida Project” even though I think it’s the best film of the year since I believe that it’s going to do well with Oscar voters like “Beasts of the Southern Wild.” I’m torn on the comedy race since I just saw “I, Tonya” and “The Disaster Artist” and think both could show up, but “The Greatest Showman” feels like a “Burlesque”-type inclusion and I guess I’m just pulling for the underrated “Battle of the Sexes” to show up. Let’s hope for the best – my category-by-category reactions might be a bit more delayed than usual but will still be up at some point tomorrow.

No guts, no glory:
“Baby Driver” for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical
Aubrey Plaza for Best Actress for “Ingrid Goes West”
Tatiana Maslany for Best Supporting Actress for “Stronger”

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Timothée Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Stronger)
Tom Hanks (The Post)
Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game)
Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Meryl Streep (The Post)
Kate Winslet (Wonder Wheel)

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical
Steve Carell (Battle of the Sexes)
James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
Kumail Nanjiani (The Big Sick)
Adam Sandler (The Meyerowitz Stories)

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical
Judi Dench (Victoria and Abdul)
Zoe Kazan (The Big Sick)
Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
Emma Stone (Battle of the Sexes)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
Armie Hammer (Call Me By Your Name)
Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
Michael Shannon (The Shape of Water)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
Melissa Leo (Novitiate)
Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Best Animated Film
The Breadwinner
Coco
Despicable Me 3
The Lego Batman Movie
Loving Vincent

Best Foreign Film
BPM (France)
First They Killed My Father (Cambodia)
In the Fade (Germany)
The Square (Sweden)
Thelma (Norway)

Best Original Score
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water

Best Original Song
If I Dare (Battle of the Sexes)
Remember Me (Coco)
I Don’t Wanna Live Forever (Fifty Shades Darker)
This Is Me (The Greatest Showman)
To Be Human (Wonder Woman)

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
The Big Sick
Call Me By Your Name
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Shape of Water

Best Director – Motion Picture
Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
Luca Guadagnino (Call Me By Your Name)
Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
Steven Spielberg (The Post)
Guillermo Del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Best Motion Picture – Drama
Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Post
The Shape of Water

Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical
Battle of the Sexes
The Big Sick
Get Out
The Greatest Showman
Lady Bird