SAG Winner Predictions: Best Actress in a Leading Role

The competition: Amy Adams’ linguist (Arrival), Emily Blunt’s discombobulated witness (The Girl on the Train), Natalie Portman’s first lady (Jackie), Meryl Streep’s ear-piercing socialite (Florence Foster Jenkins), and Emma Stone’s aspiring actress (La La Land)

For your information: This is the eleventh nomination for Streep, an impressive feat given that the SAG Awards have only existed for twenty-three years. She won once, in 2008, for “Doubt.” This is Adams’ fourth nomination. This is the second nomination for both Portman, who won in 2010 for “Black Swan,” and Stone. Blunt is the only first-time nominee. Interestingly, none of them are nominated as part of their ensembles. The winner of this award has gone on to win the Oscar all but six times since it was first given out in 1994, with 1994, 1999, 2002, 2007, 2008, and 2011 as the outliers. Adams and Blunt both aren’t nominated for the Oscar.

Who should win: I liked Adams, but I’d vote for Stone.

Who will win: I would have thought that Portman was the frontrunner until she won the Golden Globe, so I’ll go with Stone instead.