Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Bridge of Spies, Ex Machina, Inside Out, Spotlight, Straight Outta Compton

This year’s locks: La La Land, Manchester by the Sea

Very likely: Hell or High Water

Possible: The Lobster, 20th Century Women, Captain Fantastic, Jackie, Zootopia

Unlikely: Hail Caesar, Moana

The rundown: This category seems pretty set, with two of the WGA nominees in this field being moved over to the adapted race for the Oscars. That leaves Best Picture contenders La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, and Hell or High Water as the only real frontrunners, and the rest is anyone’s guess. The most logical inclusions would be The Lobster and 20th Century Women, but despite early praise, neither film is really hot right now. It could be Captain Fantastic instead, or Jackie if enthusiasm for that film picks up. Maybe animated contenders Zootopia or Moana could score a spot, and the reliable Coen brothers could also contend for Hail Caesar. Or maybe we’ll get something totally unexpected here.

One possible crazy scenario: Despite all the negative press he’s received, Nate Parker shows up here for The Birth of a Nation.

Forecasted winner: Everyone’s going gaga for La La Land, so why shouldn’t it win here?