Oscar Predictions: Best Original Song

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: “Earned It” (Fifty Shades of Grey), “’Til it Happens to You” (The Hunting Ground), “Racing Extinction” (Manta Ray), “Writing’s on the Wall” (Spectre), “Simple Song #3” (Youth)

This year’s Golden Globe nominees: “Gold” (Gold), “City of Stars” (La La Land), “How Far I’ll Go” (Moana), “Faith” (Sing), “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” (Trolls)

Other contenders: “I See Victory” (Hidden Figures), “Audition” (La La Land), “I’m Still Here” (Miss Sharon Jones), “Rules Don’t Apply” (Rules Don’t Apply), “Drive It Like You Stole It” (Sing Street), “Letter to the Free” (13th), “Try Everything” (Zootopia)

The rundown: There are 91 eligible songs this year, considerably more than last year. All five Golden Globe nominees are eligible, though it’s worth noting that you have to go back to 2004 to find a time when more than two Globe choices ended up Oscar nominees and to 1996 for an example of a five-for-five matchup. I think that trend will be bucked this year with three nominees preserved: City of Stars, a hit because of the film, How Far I’ll Go, a hit because of the people behind it, and Can’t Stop the Feeling! because it’s just so catchy and feels like it’s been around forever. I’d wager that Audition will make the cut because it makes for one pretty terrific and stirring scene, and it’s likely that, thanks to John Carney’s reputation, Drive It Like You Stole It will round out the list. Watch out for I’m Still Here or I See Victory as potential spoilers.

One possible crazy scenario: Melissa Rauch’s absurd rap that ends “The Bronze,” titled F That, wins over the voters who selected “Blame Canada” in the past.

Forecasted winner: Unless “Moana” surges, it will be City of Stars.