Oscar Predictions: Best Foreign Film

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Embrace of the Serpent (Colombia), A War (Denmark), Mustang (France), Son of Saul (Hungary), Theeb (Jordan)

This year’s contenders: Tanna (Australia), It’s Only the End of the World (Canada), Land of Mine (Denmark), Toni Erdmann (Germany), The Salesman (Iran), The King’s Choice (Norway), Paradise (Russia), A Man Called Ove (Sweden), My Life as a Zucchini (Switzerland)

The rundown: This list was winnowed down from eighty-five submissions to nine finalists, five of which will ultimately be nominated. Golden Globe winner “Elle” didn’t make this list, and neither did nominee “Neruda.” At the head of the pack are The Salesman and Toni Erdmann, and beyond that, nothing is guaranteed. I think Land of Mine is the next likeliest, and A Man Called Ove, which is already out on DVD and which I plan to see soon, could join them. For the fifth slot, I’m predicting It’s Only The End of the World over Paradise, The King’s Choice, and Tanna, but honestly I don’t know since I haven’t seen any of them. I don’t think that My Life as a Zucchini because only once in recent history has an animated contender made the cut here – “Waltz with Bashir” – and most of the time they’re reserved for selection in Best Animated Feature instead. I don’t expect to do very well in this category, but I do hope to see most of the films before the Oscars no matter what gets nominated.

One possible crazy scenario: Statistics be damned - My Life as a Zucchini earns double nominations as an animated and foreign film.

Forecasted winner: “Toni Erdmann”