Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Tuesday, January 24th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: The Big Short, Brooklyn, Carol, The Martian, Room

This year’s locks: Moonlight, Fences, Lion, Arrival

Very likely: Hidden Figures

Possible: Loving, Nocturnal Animals, Deadpool

Unlikely: Sully, Silence

The rundown: Two of these possibilities - Moonlight and Loving - were nominated as original screenplays by the WGA. The former is a sure thing, though I’m less and less convinced about the latter, which I think will just miss. Fences and Arrival are both looking good for recognition here after PGA nominations despite missing out on the Best Picture race at the Golden Globes, and Lion wasn’t eligible for the WGA but won’t have a problem scoring here. Hidden Figures seems to be on fire right now, so I’d give this the edge over Nocturnal Animals, which was nominated for a Globe for Best Screenplay. It’s hard to imagine Deadpool being Oscar-nominated, and most of the WGA’s eccentric choices haven’t played out in years past, though “Borat” did end up with a mention in this category. The love has been totally absent for Sully so I wouldn’t count on it to break through here, and ditto Silence, though it’s possible.

One possible crazy scenario: I suppose it’s not that crazy, but Pedro Almodovar’s Julieta hasn’t been doing all that well in the awards race, missing the finalist list for Best Foreign Film, and it could feasibly show up here for a rare adaptation by the auteur.

Forecasted winner: This will go to Moonlight.