Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 14th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Birdman, Boyhood, Foxcatcher, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler

This year’s locks: Spotlight, Inside Out, The Hateful Eight

Very likely: Bridge of Spies

Possible: Ex Machina, Son of Saul, Youth, Straight Outta Compton, Trainwreck, Joy, Sicario

Unlikely: So many others

The rundown: The WGA list is never the best barometer for this category since a handful of the top Oscar contenders are ruled ineligible. This year, The Hateful Eight and Inside Out are the strongest ones that couldn’t have made the cut but probably will with Oscar voters, and Youth is another possibility that wasn’t eligible. From the actual WGA nominees, I’m betting only on Spotlight and Bridge of Spies to make the cut. I don’t see Oscar voters embracing Trainwreck and I just don’t think that Straight Outta Compton will cut it here even if it makes the Best Picture race. I wouldn’t put too much stock in Sicario either, for writing specifically, and instead I’d watch out for Ex Machina. Watch out also for Best Foreign Film certainty Son of Saul to make a possible bid. I wish that Joy was a stronger contender here: it totally deserves to be recognized.

One possible crazy scenario: The wonderful script of Grandman earns a welcome mention.

Forecasted winner: I see it going to Spotlight unless Quentin Tarantino can muster enough support for his film.