Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 14th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Ida, Mr. Turner, Unbroken

This year’s locks: The Revenant, Mad Max: Fury Road, Carol

Very likely: Bridge of Spies

Possible: Sicario, The Martian, The Hateful Eight, Room, Spotlight

Unlikely: The Danish Girl, Creed, The Walk, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

The rundown: This category usually matches up 4/5 with the American Society of Cinematographers list, though in some years, like 2002 and 2007, the list corresponds exactly. Of that list, there are three nominees that should be sure things: The Revenant, Mad Max: Fury Road, and Carol. Even if it doesn’t make the Best Picture list, which it probably will at this point, I’d count on Bridge of Spies making the cut here. The fifth nominee, Sicario, is a good bet, since it should place in the technical categories and is looking more and more likely in the bigger races too. Other possibilities include The Martian, The Hateful Eight, Room, and Spotlight, and The Danish Girl or Creed could show up too.

One possible crazy scenario: I feel like I’m putting this film in this spot in every category: The Walk gets rewarded for some truly visual storytelling.

Forecasted winner: I predict Emmanuel Lubezki to score his third consecutive trophy for The Revenant.