Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 14th. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: American Sniper, The Imitation Game, Inherent Vice, The Theory of Everything, Whiplash

This year’s locks: Room, The Big Short, Steve Jobs

Very likely: Brooklyn

Possible: Anomalisa, The Martian, Carol, Trumbo, 45 Years, The Revenant, Mad Max: Fury Road

Unlikely: The End of the Tour, The Danish Girl

The rundown: The WGA list in this category seems much likelier to repeat at the Oscars than the original field, though I can’t imagine that Room, which was ineligible at the WGA, will be left off. Count on The Big Short and Steve Jobs (the surprise Globe winner) for sure, The Martian and Carol are strong possibilities but could be left off in this race, and we’ll have to see if all the love for Trumbo extends to Oscar voters. Knocking another of those films out will probably be WGA-ineligible but USC Scripter-nominated Brooklyn, and USC Scripter nominee The End of the Tour might show up too. Anomalisa is a threat because it comes from Charlie Kaufman, and watch out also for 45 Years, which feels like it would fit nicely into this race given voters’ historical choices.

One possible crazy scenario: It’s actually not that crazy, but we still don’t know if Beasts of No Nation will be a big Oscar movie or not, and a nomination here would be a show of strength.

Forecasted winner: I think this goes to Room.