SAG Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 3/5, picking Lawrence and Smith over Mirren and Silverman
Who’s missing: Jennifer Lawrence, Maggie Smith

I was so bowled over by the two surprise inclusions here that I didn’t even process the major omission: Jennifer Lawrence, whose film may have been too late-breaking to be seen by SAG voters, though I’m not sure that’s the case. In her place we have two shocking inclusions: Sarah Silverman (I Smile Back), who was good in her dramatic turn but not necessarily worthy of placement among this group. That’s also true of Helen Mirren (Woman in Gold), who starred in a likeable movie and is actually a double nominee today, which was not expected at all. The other three nominees are far more normative: Cate Blanchett (Carol), Brie Larson (Room), and Saiorse Ronan (Brooklyn). I’ve actually seen this entire group – it’s definitely not my list, but it’s an interesting one.

Who could win? Unless Blanchett or Ronan surges, it will be Larson.