Last year’s nominees: American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street
This year’s locks: Boyhood, Birdman, The Imitation Game, The Theory of Everything, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Very likely: Selma
Possible: Gone Girl, Nightcrawler, American Sniper, Whiplash, Foxcatcher, Into the Woods
Unlikely: Unbroken, Interstellar, Wild
The rundown: We’re at an interesting point right now, and technically only about half of this slate is secure. Usually, it’s easy to tell who would be at the head of the pack if there were only five nominees. The first four - Boyhood, Birdman, The Imitation Game, and The Theory of Everything - are set, but it’s looking like The Grand Budapest Hotel has overtaken Selma for the fifth slot. It’s possible that “Selma” will stumble because so many groups just didn’t see it, but most organizations that did seem to like it. Next up are a number of contenders that haven’t been omnipresent but should still make a play: Gone Girl, Nightcrawler, American Sniper, and Whiplash all got a big boost from the PGA Awards after missing out on the top races with the Golden Globes and SAG, and “American Sniper” even earned a DGA nod. Can they displace a Golden Globe Best Picture nominee also recognized for a PGA Award, Foxcatcher, or another big Globe film, Into the Woods? Or will Unbroken finally break through? I’m hoping that either Interstellar or Wild can join the list since they’ve both been recognized for certain elements only but deserve to be honored here. I am predicting ten nominees even though that hasn’t been the case the past few years.
One possible crazy scenario: The extremely popular Guardians of the Galaxy scores this big nomination.
Forecasted winner: It looks like Boyhood, but who knows?
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