Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 15th. As a result, most of the corresponding guilds won’t have announced their picks by then, so I’m making predictions in advance without being able to take those into consideration. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Before Midnight, Captain Phillips, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street

This year’s locks: Gone Girl, The Imitation Game

Very likely: American Sniper, The Theory of Everything, Wild

Possible: Whiplash, Inherent Vice

Unlikely: Guardians of the Galaxy, Into the Woods, Unbroken

The rundown: It’s very likely that four out of five of the WGA’s list will go on to be nominated for the Oscar. Gone Girl, The Imitation Game are the sure things. American Sniper seems to be very hot right now, and I’m actually concerned that Wild, which truly deserves a nomination here, will end up getting snubbed. The Theory of Everything wasn’t eligible for WGA but will likely be nominated here. I think that Inherent Vice has a stronger chance than the fifth WGA nominee Guardians of the Galaxy, and Into the Woods or Unbroken might also show up here. Complicating matters is Whiplash, which most thought would be nominated for Best Original Screenplay, has been categorized an adapted screenplay. I think it may be a little too late out of the game and I’m not sure it can bump any of the five frontrunners.

One possible crazy scenario: Breakout comedy Obvious Child ends up with a nomination for its funny and fresh script.

Forecasted winner: It looks like this is going to go to Gone Girl.