Oscar Predictions: Best Visual Effects

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 15th. As a result, most of the corresponding guilds won’t have announced their picks by then, so I’m making predictions in advance without being able to take those into consideration. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Gravity, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug, Iron Man 3, The Lone Ranger, Star Trek Into Darkness

This year’s locks: Interstellar, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

Very likely: Transformers: Age of Extinction, Guardians of the Galaxy

Possible: Godzilla, Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Unlikely: Maleficent, Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb

The rundown: I’m making my predictions for this category based almost entirely on historical data since a remarkable six of the ten finalists are entries in series that have had other installments made in the past decade.Interstellar is the undisputed frontrunner, and it would be unwise to bet against The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies since the first two films have been nominated the past two years. Next up is Transformers: Age of Extinction, which is the fourth film in its series in eight years and would be the third of them to be nominated. Guardians of the Galaxy, one of the few standalone films in this category, should have enough support to be nominated given its strong critical reception. Godzilla is my best for the fifth slot, but it could easily be overtaken by one of four films whose series have earned a grand total of zero nominations for their previous installments: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, X-Men: Days of Future Past, Captain America: The Winter Soldier, or Night at the Museum: Secret of the Tomb. Who knows, maybe Maleficent could even take a spot.

Forecasted winner: How could it not be Interstellar?