Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Documentary Short

The nominees:
CaveDigger (B)
This hands-on portrait of a man who, you guessed it, digs caves, is intriguing but lacks a certain dramatic potency. Its central character is a lively figure, one who is immensely watchable and whose life’s work is hardly conventional.
Facing Fear (B)
This jarring look at how one a former neo-Nazi who nearly beat a gay man to death now shares the stage with him at the Museum of Tolerance to educate others on harmony and forgiveness is involving but somewhat fleeting.
Karama Has No Walls (B+)
This harrowing look at violent conflict that emerged from a peaceful protest in Yemen is a visceral, haunting showcase of modern-day journalism at work in the field, a fitting companion piece to feature Best Documentary nominee “The Square” this year.
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life (B+)
It’s hard not to find this film about a 109-year-old Holocaust survivor (who sadly passed away earlier this week) who looks and acts at two decades younger and plays the piano every day charming. It manages to find great light and positivity where many might see only darkness.
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall (B)
The subject of prison hospice and elderly convicts set to be incarcerated until their deaths is a potent and oft-ignored one, and this documentary dives deep into the life of one such man. It’s a brutal but eye-opening film that charts a brave course.

Previous winners: Inocente, Saving Face, Strangers No More, Music by Prudence, Smile Pinki, Freeheld, The Blood of Yingzhou District
Who should win: I would definitely choose “The Lady in Number 6.”
Who will win: Sometimes, the darkest film in this category wins, while other times it’s the one that’s actually happy. My bet is that the latter wins out this year, and that The Lady in Number 6 can eclipse “Karama Has No Walls.”