Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 16th. As a result, most of the corresponding guilds won’t have announced their picks by then, so I’m making predictions in advance without being able to take those into consideration. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook

This year’s locks: 12 Years a Slave

Very likely: Captain Phillips, Before Midnight

Possible: Philomena, The Wolf of Wall Street, Blue is the Warmest Color, August: Osage County, Lone Survivor

Unlikely: Short Term 12, The Book Thief

The rundown: The film with the best shot at a nomination here is the one that wasn’t eligible for the WGA: 12 Years a Slave. It will likely be joined by Captain Phillips and Before Midnight, which will succeed the second film in that series as a nominee here. I’m not too keen on the chances of WGA-nominated August: Osage County, expecting that film to be generally unrecognized by Oscar voters, and I’m not too sure about Lone Survivor either. Philomena wasn’t eligible for WGA either, so count that one in here, and the fifth WGA choice, The Wolf of Wall Street is a good bet in this category more here than anywhere else. That’s a shame for Blue is the Warmest Color, which I’d love to see here but can’t quite imagine, and, as in Best Actress, it will be battling Short Term 12 for an underdog spot. The Book Thief is also possible.

One possible crazy scenario: Despite zero buzz and the fact that it still hasn’t been released, Labor Day scores a nod.

Forecasted winner: How could it not be 12 Years a Slave?