Oscar Predictions: Best Film Editing

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 16th. As a result, most of the corresponding guilds won’t have announced their picks by then, so I’m making predictions in advance without being able to take those into consideration. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

This year’s locks: Captain Phillips, 12 Years a Slave, Gravity

Very likely: American Hustle

Possible: Inside Llewyn Davis, The Wolf of Wall Street, All is Lost, The Butler

Unlikely: Nebraska, Rush

The rundown: This category usually likes Best Picture nominees, but not all the time, as evidenced by memorable snubs of “Inception” and “Brokeback Mountain.” This year, Captain Phillips, 12 Years a Slave, and Gravity all look good, and American Hustle should have no trouble getting nominated if voters are just as keen on David O. Russell as they were last year. The fifth slot should go to either Inside Llewyn Davis or The Wolf of Wall Street, though All is Lost or Nebraska might benefit from a surge of support.

One possible crazy scenario: Even if it doesn’t make it into the Best Picture race, Fruitvale Station deservedly prevails here.

Forecasted winner: I think that 12 Years a Slave could prevail here