Oscar Nominees: Best Actress in a Leading Role

My predictions: 4/5, picking Cotillard over Watts
My ballot: Come back next week!
The nominees: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Quvenzhané Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

The two first-time factors I was worried about – two Globe and SAG nominees snubbed and the presence of both an 85-year-old and a 9-year-old – turned out not to be a problem; I just backed the wrong other horse. That’s unfortunate for Marion Cotillard, who was excellent in “Rust and Bone,” making room for Watts, whose film is nowhere to be found anywhere else today. While I love Watts, I think the film was much more about its visuals and technical aspects than its acting. The other four films in this category are up for Best Picture, thanks to a groundswell of support for “Amour” and a greater affection than expected for Lawrence and Wallis’ films. Stick around for further analysis on other categories on that note. Had Cotillard been here instead of Watts, I would have labeled this a stellar list.

My current bet to win: I’d say it could be anyone but Watts, but what do I know? I think Lawrence got a major bump from her film’s nomination performance.