Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 10th. As a result, most of the corresponding guilds won’t have announced their picks by then, so I’m making predictions in advance without being able to take those into consideration. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: The Artist, Bridesmaids, Margin Call, Midnight in Paris, A Separation

This year’s locks: Zero Dark Thirty, Moonrise Kingdom

Very likely: The Master, Django Unchained

Possible: Amour, Flight

Unlikely: Brave, Seven Psychopaths, Middle of Nowhere, Take This Waltz, The Impossible

The rundown: It’s useless to wait for the Writers Guild of America to announce its picks on January 3rd since they’ve disqualified more than half of the films I’ve predicted above. It’s smarter, therefore, to rely on past Oscar statistics. Mark Boal won this award for “The Hurt Locker” in 2009, and so it’s all but guaranteed that Zero Dark Thirty will be here this year. Wes Anderson, Paul Thomas Anderson, and Quentin Tarantino all have excellent track records in this category, even when their films haven’t been Best Picture contenders, which they may be this year. Count Moonrise Kingdom, The Master, and Django Unchained in. Michael Haneke should earn his first nomination in this race based on what I’ve heard about Amour, and he’ll be fighting popular films like Flight and Brave for that slot. Otherwise, the contenders could come from anywhere, so look out for a strange inclusion.

One possible crazy scenario: The fantastic Safety Not Guaranteed makes a surprise appearance.

Forecasted winner: I think this goes to Zero Dark Thirty.