Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

This year, Oscar nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 10th. As a result, most of the corresponding guilds won’t have announced their picks by then, so I’m making predictions in advance without being able to take those into consideration. I’ll be offering detailed predictions in most of the major categories, saving some of the biggest categories for last.

Last year’s nominees: The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo, The Tree of Life, War Horse

This year’s locks: Lincoln, Les Miserables, Zero Dark Thirty, Life of Pi

Very likely: None

Possible: Beasts of the Southern Wild, Argo, The Dark Knight Rises, Anna Karenina

Unlikely: The Master, Skyfall, The Hobbit

The rundown: This category is all about how things look. Sometimes, like in 2010, all the nominees are also up for Best Picture, and sometimes, like in 2006, none of them are. This year, four Best Picture frontrunners are also in the lead here. Lincoln contains plenty of war scenes and courtroom drama, Les Miserables is a big epic, Zero Dark Thirty is an intelligent thriller, and Life of Pi is here for obvious reasons. After that, it’s anyone’s game. If the film comes back strongly, The Dark Knight Rises should be here, especially considering that Christopher Nolan’s cinematographer Wally Pfister has been nominated for their last four collaborations. Skyfall is a strong choice, but no James Bond film has ever appeared in this category. I’m betting on a different horse altogether: Beasts of the Southern Wild, which I think may manage to enchant Oscar voters, earning newbie Ben Richardson his first Oscar nod.

One possible crazy scenario: Something like Prometheus pops up here.

Forecasted winner: It seems like this would be the place to honor Life of Pi.