The competition: Bullhead (Belgium), Footnote (Israel), In Darkness (Poland), Monsieur Lazhar (Canada), A Separation (Iran)
Previous winners: In a Better World (Denmark), The Secret in their Eyes (Argentina), Departures (Japan), The Counterfeiters (Austria), The Lives of Others (Germany), Tsotsi (South Africa)
My winner: Turn Me On, Goddamit
Who should win: A Separation
Who will win: Canada is the only country on this list that has won before. This is the tenth nomination for Israel, the ninth for Poland, and the seventh for Belgium, all of which have never won. I don’t think any of those statistics matter, however, because one film is firmly out ahead. “Footnote” is great, and “In Darkness” is good too, but neither are likely to win. With two previous nominations, Iran should be able to take the award home for A Separation, which has the added bonus of being nominated for Best Original Screenplay.
Having additional nominations did not help Amélie, or Pan's Labyrinth, or The White Ribbon win this Oscar, even though they were the popular choices in their respective years. Will the Academy embrace A Separation? This category is always a puzzle, so I would not take A Separation's win for granted. Just something to consider...
ReplyDeleteFair. I do think that it's far enough ahead, and I'd be shocked if it didn't prevail.
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