Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

The competition: The Descendants, Hugo, The Ides of March, Moneyball, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Previous winners: The Social Network, Precious, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, The Departed, Brokeback Mountain
My winner: “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”
Who should win: “Moneyball”
Who will win: “Sling Blade” and “Gods and Monsters” won this award in 1996 and 1998, respectively, but you have to go back to 1952 to find another example of a film not nominated for Best Picture winning this award. That doesn’t bode well for “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” or “The Ides of March,” though I couldn’t imagine the latter winning anyway. “Hugo” is the nominations leader, but its script is hardly its strongest element. That boils it down to “The Descendants” and “Moneyball.” Alexander Payne won in 2004 for “Sideways,” but I’d hedge my bet on Moneyball, which brings together last year’s winner Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian, who won for adapting “Schindler’s List.” Neither film is likely to win any other trophies, so they’re duking it out for the consolation prize.