Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Last year’s nominees: Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone

This year’s locks: The Artist, The Descendants, Hugo, Moneyball

Very likely: The Help, Midnight in Paris, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Possible: War Horse, Bridesmaids, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close

Unlikely: The Ides of March, The Tree of Life, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Drive

The rundown: Having anywhere from five to ten nominees this year is a prognosticator’s nightmare, but the notion of honoring a variant number of films depending how many great movies were made in a year actually makes some sense. Based on the way things have gone thus far with precursor awards, it seems likely that the first seven films listed above are good bets to make it. I think that “War Horse” will join them, and that’ll be it, in my opinion. Then it gets down to less predictable films, like comedy “Bridesmaids” or a film that’s been shut out almost everywhere up until now, “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.” Nominated at both the Golden Globes and the PGA Awards is “The Ides of March,” which may hold on until Oscar, and then a handful of films that have yet to really make it in the awards race, like “The Tree of Life” and “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy.” I’m predicting only eight nominees, but who knows what’s going to happen here?

One possible crazy scenario: Something like “Melancholia” comes from out of nowhere and lands a slot.

Forecasted winner: “The Artist”