Oscar Predictions: Best Original Screenplay

Last year’s nominees: Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech

This year’s locks: Midnight in Paris, The Artist

Very likely: Young Adult

Possible: 50/50, Win Win, Bridesmaids, Beginners, Margin Call

Unlikely: Martha Marcy May Marlene, Shame

The rundown: Woody Allen is definitely earning his fifteenth nomination in this category, and he’ll be joined by first-time nominee Michel Hazanavicius for “The Artist.” After that, it’s anybody’s guess. I’ve ranked the four WGA nominees that joined “Midnight in Paris” after those two, and I do think that “Bridesmaids” will not make the cut. “Win Win,” however small it may have been, seems to be doing well, as does “50/50.” It seems that “Young Adult” will only be recognized for its screenplay, and that “Beginners” will only be noticed for Christopher Plummer’s performance. Both “Martha Marcy May Marlene” and “Shame” needed to make a bigger splash with precursors to have a fighting chance here, and “Margin Call” might be too small a film. I expect one or two big surprises in this category.

One possible crazy scenario: John Michael McDonagh makes the cut for his superb screenplay for “The Guard.”

Forecasted winner: “Midnight in Paris”