Oscar Predictions: Best Cinematography

Last year’s nominees: Black Swan, Inception, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, True Grit

This year’s locks: The Tree of Life, The Artist, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo

Very likely: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

Possible: War Horse

Unlikely: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Melancholia

The rundown: This category seems set as the five nominees from the American Society of Cinematographers look good as the Oscar frontrunners, all Oscar movies with pretty much undeniable visual qualities. The technical categories look to be where “The Tree of Life” will be rewarded, and so that’s the surest thing of all here. “The Artist,” “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo,” and “Hugo” are all extremely different and should make the cut, and then it comes down to “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” and “War Horse,” the latter of which may just be Oscar voters’ cup of tea. “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” could rally, but it’s a bit too ordinary in terms of its setting, and I think the ship has sailed for “Melancholia.”

One possible crazy scenario: “The Tree of Life” does not catch on with Oscar voters and misses the cut.

Forecasted winner: “The Tree of Life”