Oscar Predictions: Best Animated Feature

Last year’s nominees: How to Train Your Dragon, The Illusionist, Toy Story 3

This year’s locks: Rango, The Adventures of Tintin

Very likely: Puss in Boots, Cars 2

Possible:Happy Feet Two, Kung Fu Panda 2, Arthur Christmas, Winnie the Pooh

Unlikely: Rio, Gnomeo and Juliet

The rundown: There are eighteen features officially in the running for this category, meaning that there will be five nominees, as opposed to three last year. The four films that earned both Golden Globe and PGA nods are “Rango,” “The Adventures of Tintin,” “Puss in Boots,” and “Cars 2.” The last slot went to “Arthur Christmas” and “Kung Fu Panda 2,” respectively, but I suspect that Oscar voters may follow in their own suspects and nominate the follow-up to their 2006 winner in this category, “Happy Feet,” rather than their 2008 winner, “Kung Fu Panda.” This category, only a decade old, is too old to have any real statistics about the reception of sequels, though “Shrek 2” was nominated.

Forecasted winner: “Rango”