Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

Last year’s nominees: 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone

This year’s locks: The Descendants, Moneyball, The Help

Very likely: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Hugo

Possible: Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, War Horse

Unlikely: The Ides of March, Carnage

The rundown: The WGA list could well translate to the five nominees this year. The three locks listed above are going to be in, and given the positive reception for “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” recently, that seems likely too. “Hugo” is the one film that could be recognized more for its technical achievements than its literary ones. Conventional wisdom would be that if “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close” makes it in for Best Picture, it also grabs a spot here, but that’s not necessarily true. “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” is also a strong possibility, and “War Horse” could place here if Oscar voters love it. Golden Globe nominee “The Ides of March” has close to no shot, but perhaps it’s unwise to underestimate it entirely.

One possible crazy scenario: “Drive” proves that Oscar voters have awesome taste by scoring here.

Forecasted winner: “Moneyball”