Oscar Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Last year’s nominees: Christian Bale, John Hawkes, Jeremy Renner, Mark Ruffalo, Geoffrey Rush

This year’s locks: Christopher Plummer (Beginners)

Very likely: Albert Brooks (Drive), Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)

Possible: Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Max Von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close), Brad Pitt (The Tree of Life), Viggo Mortensen (A Dangerous Method), Armie Hammer (J. Edgar), Nick Nolte (Warrior)

Unlikely: John Hawkes (Martha Marcy May Marlene)

The rundown: This category may be wildly unpredictable. Plummer is the only safe bet, though Brooks and Branagh are looking pretty right now. Hill doesn’t seem like the kind of actor who’d be Oscar-nominated, but the film is likely to do very well, so I think he’ll be in. Mortensen, Hammer, and Nolte split Globe and SAG nods, and last year’s nominee Hawkes could get in if voters choose to recognize his film. Pitt is a serious threat to upset given the fact that his film could come from nowhere to earn Oscar recognition despite almost nonexistent guild support, but I think that the fifth slot will go to veteran Von Sydow, who gives a heartwarming performance in a film that, though it’s been slighted thus far, will probably do just fine with Oscar voters.

One possible crazy scenario: “The Ides of March” turns out to be more than just a Globe film, earning nominations for any of the following three: George Clooney, Paul Giamatti, or Philip Seymour Hoffman.

Forecasted winner: Plummer