Wednesday Oscar Watch

Welcome to a newly-restarted feature here at Movies with Abe, Wednesday Oscar Watch with Abe. It’s a bit early to be able to accurately predict the eventual Oscar nominees, but around this time, plenty of likely contenders are being released. I’ll be looking every Wednesday at the awards chances for all of the films released the previous week. Chime in with your thoughts on the Oscar chances for these films in the comments section. Also, if I’ve missed any films from the previous months, please say so!

Films released December 9 – 16, 2011

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
This moody spy thriller got shut out by SAG and the Golden Globes, but there’s still a chance that never-nominated Gary Oldman will slip into the Best Actor category. Benedict Cumberbatch, Colin Firth, or John Hurt might once have contended for Best Supporting Actor, but it’s doubtful that any of them could still make it in. If the Best Picture field was still guaranteed to be ten nominees wide, it might feasibly be one of them, and at this point, it will probably manage a mention for Best Adapted Screenplay, and, if voters really like it, it could also appear in Best Cinematography, Best Art Direction, Best Film Editing, or Best Original Score.

Young Adult
Jason Reitman was ignored for his first film, “Thank You For Smoking,” and Oscar-nominated for his second and third. Reteaming with “Juno” writer Diablo Cody means that the film will probably get in for Best Original Screenplay, but that may be it. Charlize Theron won’t be able to break into a crowded Best Actress field, and it would be strange for supporting actor Patton Oswalt to get in all by himself.

Carnage
This Roman Polanski-directed comedy didn’t make much of a splash anywhere, besides nominations for both Jodie Foster and Kate Winslet in the Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical category at the Golden Globes. There’s just no room for them in either the Best Actress or Best Supporting Actress category, and so this film might have a shot at Best Adapted Screenplay and little more.

Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows
The first film got mentions for Best Original Score and Best Art Direction. I’m not sure if the soundtrack is eligible, but it should be in if it is, and I would think that both Best Art Direction and Best Costume Design are good bets.