Wednesday Oscar Retrospective: Five to Ten for 2005

Welcome back to weekly feature here at Movies with Abe, Wednesday Oscar Retrospective. Five to Ten is the fifth in a series of projects looking back at the past eight years of the Oscars, dating back to the first ceremony I watched and closely followed.

On the heels of the Academy’s announcement that this coming year will feature anywhere from five to ten films in the Best Picture list, I thought to look back at the most recent decade to determine what number of films would have ultimately earned a slot in the top category. Obviously, this is all guesswork and designed, above anything, to be fun. In the new system, films will need to earn at least 5% of the first-place votes. Feel free to post your thoughts in the comments!

Five to Ten for 2005
The actual lineup: Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Crash, Good Night and Good Luck, Munich

The locks: The above five and the Golden Globe winner for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical, Walk the Line.

The benefactors: This is one year where there were definitely a lot of vote-siphoners. Only two of the ten Golden Globe nominees for Best Picture earned corresponding Oscar nods, so there a handful of other films among them that could have been contenders, such as The Constant Gardener, A History of Violence, and Match Point, though I’m not sure any of them would have ultimately made the cut.

The longshots: Peter Jackson’s King Kong had its fans, as did Ron Howard’s Russell Crowe starrer Cinderella Man.

And the nominees could have been… Brokeback Mountain, Capote, Crash, Good Night and Good Luck, Munich, Walk the Line

Does it change the winner? Probably not. If there was any film that could take down “Brokeback Mountain,” it was “Crash.” It’s always possible that “Walk the Line” could have staged an upset, but it’s doubtful.

Which lineup is better? The disconnect between the Golden Globe list and the Oscar lineup indicates that the year might have been broader than just five films, but I would have preferred a much wider film including the likes of “Match Point” and “Cinderella Man.” This six-wide field isn’t much improved.