Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

The competition: 127 Hours, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone

Previous winners: Precious, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, The Departed, Brokeback Mountain, Sideways
Who should win: The Social Network
Who will win: Last year, this category provided one of the only major surprises as the one trophy thought to be reserved for “Up in the Air” went to “Precious.” This year, the frontrunner is so far ahead that there’s no way it can’t win. Aaron Sorkin has never even been nominated for an Oscar before this, meaning he’s way overdue, and incredibly deserving. Plus, this is the one place where “The Social Network” doesn’t have to compete with “The King’s Speech.” The animated feature category will be the consolation prize for “Toy Story 3.” There’s not enough support behind small indie “Winter’s Bone,” and “127 Hours,” if it was going to be recognized anywhere, would be honored in a technical category. The script for “True Grit” might be strong according to some, but not beloved enough to beat “The Social Network,” probably the surest sure thing of the night.