The competition: Amy Adams’ supportive girlfriend (The Fighter), Helena Bonham Carter’s royal wife (The King’s Speech), Melissa Leo’s manager mother (The Fighter), Hailee Steinfeld’s mature fourteen-year-old (True Grit), and Jacki Weaver’s criminal matriarch (Animal Kingdom).
Previous winners: Mo’Nique, Penelope Cruz, Tilda Swinton, Jennifer Hudson, Rachel Weisz, Cate Blanchett
Who should win: Leo or Adams
Who will win: This is one category where a surprise win could happen. Leo seems to have taken home a good amount of the precursors, and she’s seemed genuinely grateful every time she’s picked up an award. Adams, clearly an Oscar favorite after earning her third nomination in six years, isn’t going to beat her costar, so she’ll have to hold out for a future film to earn her a trophy. Carter won the BAFTA this past weekend without Leo in the race, and the only way she could win is if enthusiasm for “The King’s Speech” paves the way for a huge sweep. Weaver could definitely pull off an upset, which would be awesome, though lack of any other attention for her film isn’t a good sign. Steinfeld is Leo’s steepest competition, and the ten nominations that “True Grit” accrued show that it’s definitely popular. My main instinct is that there’s no reason for Leo not to win, and any time upsets have happened in the past few years, it’s been for lack of a frontrunner, like in 2007. It will still probably be Leo.
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