Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Last year’s nominees: Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air

This year’s locks: The Social Network, Inception, The King’s Speech, The Fighter, Black Swan

Very likely: True Grit, Toy Story 3, The Kids Are All Right

Possible: Winter’s Bone, 127 Hours, The Town

Unlikely: Blue Valentine, Another Year, Shutter Island, The Ghost Writer, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

The rundown: There were plenty of puns last year about Oscar prognosticators being “blind sided” by “The Blind Side,” but, honestly, it’s absolutely true. It was a major surprise, and it wasn’t easy to see coming. We shouldn’t purposely anticipate such a shocker this year as well, and therefore I’m tempted to predict the seemingly most likely ten, though “The Town” really is nipping at the heels of both “Winter’s Bone” (which missed out on a PGA nod) and “127 Hours” (which hasn’t landed many Best Picture bids from critics groups). In any case, there’s a few independent films and major films to watch out for, and hopefully this year we’ll have a category that honors ten deserving films. While this is the most important category, there also isn’t much to say about it that I haven’t already said.

Forecasted winner: “The Social Network,” though “The King’s Speech” is nipping at its heels.