Oscar Predictions: Best Makeup

Last year’s nominees: Il Divo, Star Trek, The Young Victoria

This year’s locks: Never a good idea in this category.

Very likely: Alice in Wonderland

Possible: The Wolfman, Barney’s Version, The Way Back, True Grit

Unlikely: The Fighter, Jonah Hex

The rundown: This category has only seven finalists, and only three of them will advance to the final round. This category tends to favor showier work, which is why I’ve discounted the chances of “The Fighter,” and often even rewards completely unsuspecting contenders, like “Il Divo” last year. I think even the detractors of “Alice in Wonderland” will give it a pass in this category, if only for the way that Johnny Depp looks in the film. “The Wolfman” seems like a good bet (especially considering the effects looked very unfinished and the makeup was considerably more commendable). My third pick is for “Barney’s Version,” perhaps because the stars of the film were discussing the intensity of the makeup process for that film at a recent press day. This could also be the only place that the epic “The Way Back” pops up, and then we have two Best Picture contenders and one horrifically-reviewed film. This is one race, however, where that doesn’t matter, as evidenced by the nomination for “Norbit” in 2006.

Forecasted winner: “Alice in Wonderland”