Oscar Predictions: Best Director

Last year’s nominees: James Cameron (Avatar), Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker), Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds), Lee Daniels (Precious), Jason Reitman (Up in the Air)

This year’s locks: David Fincher (The Social Network), Christopher Nolan (Inception), Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)

Very likely: Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech), David O. Russell (The Fighter)

Possible: Danny Boyle (127 Hours), Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit), Mike Leigh (Another Year)

Unlikely: Debra Granik (Winter’s Bone), Roman Polanski (The Ghost Writer), Ben Affleck (The Town), Lisa Cholodenko (The Kids Are All Right)

The rundown: With ten Best Picture nominees, and this lineup matching up perfectly with Best Picture in 2008, voters seem to have forgotten about the lone director slot! Before we even get to contenders like Leigh and Granik, of course, we have two recent Oscar-winning directing teams – Boyle and the Coens – nipping at the heels of one former nominee (Fincher) and four prospective first-timers. The DGA lineup matched the Globe list five for five, as opposed to last year, when Clint Eastwood still held on to some hope for “Invictus.” This year, it looks pretty standard, and barring any exciting surprises – or snubs for the supposedly vulnerable Hooper and Russell – this should be the above five men.

Forecasted winner: Fincher