Because of the busy nature of the next few weeks awards-wise, here are my current Oscar predictions, subject to minor revisions before nominations are announced on January 25th.
Last year’s nominees: Bright Star, Coco Before Chanel, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, The Young Victoria
Costume Designers Guild nominees: Contemporary Film (Black Swan, Burlesque, Inception, The Social Network, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps), Period Film (The Fighter, The King’s Speech, True Grit), Fantasy Film (Alice in Wonderland, The Tempest, Tron: Legacy)
This year’s locks: The King’s Speech
Very likely: Alice in Wonderland
Possible: Burlesque, Black Swan, Made in Dagenham, True Grit, Secretariat, Robin Hood, Inception, The Tempest
Unlikely: Get Low, The Way Back, Tron: Legacy, The Social Network, The Fighter
The rundown: Like last year, this is the one race in which the juggernaut (“Avatar” / “The Social Network”) is not going to get nominated, even if both did get Costume Designers Guild nods, and so period piece “The King’s Speech” gets a big boost. Otherwise, this category doesn’t have to relate to the top races as much, and many of my “possibles” have a decent shot at upsetting. I’m particularly worried about “Made in Dagenham,” which couldn’t manage a CDG nomination and hasn’t earned an ounce of awards attention for some truly peculiar reason this entire season. I’m still pulling for it, and watch out for “Secretariat” and “Robin Hood” to be recognized here when they so likely won’t be recognized anywhere else.
Forecasted winner: Maybe Alice in Wonderland.
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