Oscar Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Because of the busy nature of the next few weeks awards-wise, here are my current Oscar predictions, subject to minor revisions before nominations are announced on January 25th.

Last year’s nominees: Matt Damon, Woody Harrelson, Christopher Plummer, Stanley Tucci, Christoph Waltz

This year’s locks: Christian Bale (The Fighter), Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)

Very likely: None

Possible: Andrew Garfield (The Social Network), Jeremy Renner (The Town), Mark Ruffalo (The Kids Are All Right), John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)

Unlikely: Sam Rockwell (Conviction), Justin Timberlake (The Social Network), Michael Douglas (Wall Street 2: Money Never Sleeps), Bill Murray (Get Low), Ed Harris (The Way Back), Matt Damon (True Grit), Josh Brolin (True Grit), Jim Broadbent (Another Year).

The rundown: Like the Best Actor category, this race has six men vying for five slots and then a whole bunch of people who could easily upset and shake things up in a major way. The simplest scenario is the one I’ve chosen, but I’m really not to sure about it. Garfield missing out on a SAG nod is troubling (as is Ruffalo’s missing Globe nod), and I just don’t completely see Renner going the distance. Hawkes feels to me very much like a Djimon Hounsou nomination (for “In America”), but he already scored at the SAG Awards, so can he repeat the feat? Once upon a time, Rockwell and Timberlake were going to be major contenders, and the same is true of Harris, whose film hasn’t really been seen or written about very much at all yet. Damon and Brolin probably cancel each other out, and Murray hasn’t popped up in enough places. And then there’s Douglas, whose Globe nod signals a certain respect for the veteran actor, who did win an Oscar for playing the same role. Can it happen? This is definitely a volatile category. I’d also love to think that “Another Year” will rebound in a major way at the Oscars and that Broadbent could have a shot.

One possible crazy scenario: Christian Bale’s bad reputation results in him getting snubbed.

Forecasted winner: Barring any surprises, it will be Bale.