My predictions: 4/5, picking “127 Hours” over “Black Swan”
Who’s missing: “127 Hours,” “True Grit,” “Winter’s Bone,” “Another Year,” “The Town”
This lineup really isn’t all that surprising. What’s somewhat more surprising is that all five of these films got nominated for Best Director. That’s good news for Black Swan, which wasn’t necessarily a lock here, and The Fighter, which definitely wasn’t a lock for Best Director. The other three were entirely safe: Inception, The King’s Speech, and The Social Network. All told, TKS was the nominations leader with 7, followed by TF and TSN with 6, and the other two with 4. Shockingly, “True Grit” was shut out, though it’s worth noting that “A Serious Man” didn’t make it into the Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical race last year but still had an easy time getting nomination for Best Picture. I was surprised that “127 Hours” wasn’t here when it did get nominated for Best Screenplay, but I guess that’s what only having five nominees does. “Winter’s Bone” and “Another Year” could both sure use a boost to compete for Best Picture.
Who could win? At this point, I think it’s got to be The Social Network.
What does this mean for the Oscar race? See above.
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