Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

Last year’s nominees: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader, Slumdog Millionaire

This year’s PGA nominees: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Up in the Air, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, Up, Invictus, An Education, District 9, Star Trek

Other contenders: A Serious Man, The Messenger, Julie & Julia, 500 Days of Summer, The Hangover, Where the Wild Things Are, It’s Complicated

The rundown: I've written extensively about this category before, so my analysis here won't be lengthy. Ten nominees means a whole lot of competition, and it could also mean many surprises. Sci-fi might reign with three films nominated, but it’s likely that only one out of the pair that is “District 9” and “Star Trek” will make it in. “A Serious Man” seems quite vulnerable, but it should be able to pull through. The Golden Globe nominees for Best Motion Picture – Comedy/Musical may all have a shot, though I don’t think any of them will make it in. I’m hoping for some good surprises, though honestly I really liked nine of the films I’ve predicted (minus “Precious”). Most people seem to have a good idea of which films will make it in here, but I imagine that this category is ripe for at least one or two good shocks.

One possible crazy scenario: Only the top five films I’ve predicted make it in, paving the way for mainstream comedies to fill the remaining slots.

Forecasted winner: The Hurt Locker