Oscar Predictions: Best Animated Feature

Last year’s nominees: Bolt, Kung Fu Panda, Wall-E

This year’s Golden Globe nominees: Up, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, Coraline, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

Other contenders: Ponyo, 9, A Christmas Carol, Monsters vs. Aliens

The rundown: There’s no reason the lineup from the Golden Globes won’t repeat at the Oscars, but there are two films that could displace the weaker contenders. The first is “Ponyo” from director Hayao Miyazaki, most recently nominated in 2005 for “Howl’s Moving Castle” after wining in 2002 for “Spirited Away.” The second is my favorite animated feature of 2009, “9,” which saw its chances jump up when it was recognized as one of the five films nominated by the PGA in this category. I’m not sure either will be able to upset, but it’s possible. This category has been ripe for a major surprise the past two years, so that may happen again.

Forecasted winner: Up