Oscar Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay

Last year’s nominees: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, The Reader, Slumdog Millionaire

This year’s locks: Up in the Air, Precious

Very likely: An Education

Possible: Julie & Julia, District 9, Invictus, Fantastic Mr. Fox, In the Loop, A Single Man, Crazy Heart

Unlikely: Star Trek, Where the Wild Things Are, The Road

The rundown: This race is probably the most competitive of the major categories because there are only a few sure things and the rest of the field is wide open. Since a number of the contenders were ineligible for the WGA Awards, “Crazy Heart” and “Star Trek” made it in. I don’t think the Oscars will be quite as creative, but we’ll see. Many are predicting “Fantastic Mr. Fox” and “In the Loop,” though I’m not so sure. I don’t feel right about leaving “Invictus” out, but that’s what the math suggests. This really is a tricky category.

Forecasted winner: Up in the Air