SAG Predictions: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

Last year’s nominees:
JOSH BROLIN, MILK
ROBERT DOWNEY, JR.
PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN, DOUBT
HEATH LEDGER, THE DARK KNIGHT
DEV PATEL, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE

For the past four years, this category has produced one false positive that didn’t make it to the Oscars, often a second nominee from a film already nominated here: Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire), Tommy Lee Jones (No Country for Old Men), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Departed), and Don Cheadle (Crash). This is likely a good entry point for Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), even if he doesn’t get nominated for a Golden Globe. Otherwise, expect Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds) andMatt Damon (Invictus), and probably Alfred Molina (An Education) and Christopher Plummer (The Last Station). Beware of potential multiple nominees from that last film, including James McAvoy and Paul Giammati. If actors really love the film, Anthony Mackie (The Hurt Locker) could be nominated, but I don’t think he will. Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones) might be honored if his film isn’t despised, and there’s always the chance that the true breakthrough of Christian McKay (Me and Orson Welles) will be recognized. And who knows, maybe Alec Baldwin (It’s Complicated) will be nominated here too.

Predicted nominees:
MATT DAMON, INVICTUS
WOODY HARRELSON, THE MESSENGER
ALFRED MOLINA, AN EDUCATION
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER, THE LAST STATION
CHRISTOPH WALTZ, INGLORIOUS BASTERDS

Final predictions will be offered on Wednesday, December 16th, after Golden Globe nominees are revealed. SAG nominations will be announced on Thursday, December 17th, and come back to Movies with Abe for a detailed look at each race.