SAG Predictions: Best Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture

Last year’s nominees:
RICHARD JENKINS, THE VISITOR
FRANK LANGELLA, FROST/NIXON
SEAN PENN, MILK
BRAD PITT, THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
MICKEY ROURKE, THE WRESTLER

Last year, this lineup matched up five for five with the eventual Oscar list, and usually at least four of the nominees coordinate. In this category, stars of films that don’t really take off with the Oscars have done well here, like Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild), Russell Crowe (Cinderella Man), Peter Dinklage (The Station Agent), and Kevin Kline (Life as a House). This year, there should be four locks and one mystery fifth nominee. George Clooney (Up in the Air), Colin Firth (A Single Man), Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart), and Morgan Freeman (Invictus) should all make it in. The fifth slot might go to Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker), though he’s not as established an actor as some of his competition, like Daniel Day-Lewis (Nine). My bet is that this branch of actors will honor a veteran actor they nominated for the first time in 2007: Hal Holbrook (That Evening Sun).

Predicted nominees:
JEFF BRIDGES, CRAZY HEART
GEORGE CLOONEY, UP IN THE AIR
COLIN FIRTH, A SINGLE MAN
MORGAN FREEMAN, INVICTUS
HAL HOLBROOK, THAT EVENING SUN

Final predictions will be offered on Wednesday, December 16th, after Golden Globe nominees are revealed. SAG nominations will be announced on Thursday, December 17th, and come back to Movies with Abe for a detailed look at each race.