SAG Nominees: Best Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture

My predictions: 4/5, missing Plummer
Not nominated at the Golden Globes: No one
Who’s missing: Alfred Molina (An Education)

I was right to sub Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones) back in, but wrong to underestimate Christopher Plummer (The Last Station), who should finally get recognition for a career spanning over forty years (“The Sound of Music” came out in 1965). On top of his Globe snub, Alfred Molina’s chances probably aren’t looking good at this point since none of these nominees are weak or likely to fall out to make room for him on the Oscar list. Woody Harrelson (The Messenger) is going strong, even though my hunch about his film earning four nominations didn’t pan out at all. Matt Damon (Invictus) is now looking to be a sure thing, while frontrunner Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds) has yet another awards mention to add to his tally.

Who could win? I’m thinking Waltz, though this could be a great opportunity to honor either Plummer or Harrelson.
What does this mean for the Oscar race? This is the exact Globe lineup, and I don’t see why this same group won’t repeat at the Oscars. Do you agree?