Monday Oscar Odds

Full-fledged, extensive Oscar predictions are coming in January, but I’d like to keep a running list of my predicted nominees up until that point. I’ll expand to include other categories later. Remember to check back in January for analysis and revised predictions.

After the announcements of the Golden Globe and SAG nominees, the contenders are starting to look a whole lot more solid. I usually try to predict slight surprises, but for the moment, I’m going to stick with what looks most likely at this point.

Best Picture
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
Nine
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

So it appears that Avatar is in since it’s received pretty much only raves. That’s the only one of this bunch I haven’t seen, and I plan to see it sometime in the coming weeks. The Golden Globes snubbed An Education, Invictus, and A Serious Man, which isn’t good news, but I think they should all be able to still make it. The only serious threat is The Messenger, which could easily break through and replace “An Education” or “A Serious Man.” Both Nine and Precious may also be less secure, due to iffy reviews and backlash against all the hype, respectively. If anything was going to take their places, it would probably be It’s Complicated, Julie & Julia, Star Trek, or District 9, but the above list looks good.

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglorious Basterds

Forget Rob Marshall (Nine). He may still have a shot, but his Golden Globe snub does not bode well. More importantly, these five directors, all nominated at the Golden Globes, all look pretty strong. Even if voters don’t love “Avatar” or “Invictus,” they’ll still likely embrace filmmakers James Cameron, who won in 1997 for “Titanic,” and Clint Eastwood, who has been nominated three time already this decade, winning in 2004 for “Million Dollar Baby.” The lone director slot doesn’t necessarily apply anymore because there are ten best picture nominees, and it also didn’t exist at all in 2008 and 2005. I’m fairly confident in these five filmmakers.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

After SAG nominated Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker), I feel comfortable adding him to the list, though swapping out the incredibly deserving Hal Holbrook (That Evening Sun) makes me sad. Renner still is the one who might not make it, after the Golden Globes snubbed him in favor of Tobey Maguire (Brothers). Ben Foster (The Messenger) might also have the possibility to upset, but I think Renner’s in.

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

I’m facing facts and officially subbing in Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side), even though she really doesn’t deserve it all. Poor Abbie Cornish (Bright Star) is getting snubbed everywhere, and now she has to fight off Golden Globe nominee Emily Blunt (The Young Victoria) if she has any chance of knocking out Bullock or Helen Mirren (The Last Station).

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds

So Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones) is officially in even though his movie is officially out, and Woody Harrelson (The Messenger) seems to be well on his way to an Oscar nomination. The SAG list was the same as the Globe list, leaving off Alfred Molina (An Education) and Christian McKay (Me and Orson Welles), and really no one else. I don’t think either of them have the strength to replace any of the above five, unless “The Last Station” doesn’t do well and Christopher Plummer misses out on a nomination.

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Mo’Nique, Precious

This was the Globe lineup, but SAG introduced a new name to the competition: Diane Kruger (Inglorious Basterds). Interesting choice, but most people’s reactions were the same as mine – too bad it wasn’t Melanie Laurent (Inglorious Basterds) instead. Julianne Moore (A Single Man) was the one who wasn’t nominated by SAG, but I think she’ll be back in because Kruger couldn’t really make it all the way to the Oscars. The only real threat is Samantha Morton (The Messenger), and that could happen.

Best Original Screenplay
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

The inclusion of 500 Days of Summer as a Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical nominee at the Golden Globes make me think perhaps it’s stronger than it seems, but the inclusion of District 9 in the Best Screenplay category is an even more powerful indicator for me. The categories don’t necessarily match up, as “About Schmidt” won the Globe in 2002 and then wasn’t even among the ten recognized screenplays come Oscar time. It’s Complicated was a surprise nominee at the Globes, so it’s now a contender here, though not a major one. The Messenger could also pop up here, but I don’t think so.

Best Adapted Screenplay
An Education
Invictus
Julie & Julia
Precious
Up in the Air

This list still looks solid, though there’s always the threat of children’s stories like Where the Wild Things Are or Fantastic Mr. Fox being recognized. I’ll stick with these five; they look pretty solid.

Check back every Monday for a slightly updated list of Oscar predictions. Please chime in the comments with your thoughts!