My predictions: 3/5, missing Harrelson and Tucci (wrong film)Who’s missing: Alfred Molina (An Education)
The actor who is most glaringly absent from this category is Alfred Molina, whose film was shut out in all categories except that of lead actress, which worries me. Fortunately, the actor in his slot who was a good bet to earn a Golden Globe nomination is Woody Harrelson (The Messenger), who turned in a fine performance in that film and a funny one in “Zombieland” this year and deserves credit for that. My gamble on which film Stanley Tucci would be nominated for turned out to be wrong, with the otherwise snubbed film, “The Lovely Bones,” providing his citation instead of Best Picture nominee “Julie & Julia.” Matt Damon (Invictus) and Christopher Plummer (The Last Station) managed to get in here with the help of their lead performers being nominated and despite their films being snubbed for Best Picture. And then there’s Christoph Waltz (Inglorious Basterds), the biggest lock of all time and also the Best Supporting Actor of the year.
Who could win? I think it’s got to be Waltz.
What does this mean for the Oscar race? Consider this a huge blow for Molina, who may now be out because this could easily be the eventual Oscar lineup. It’s also a very good sign for both Harrelson and Plummer.
I think Molina is still very likely. He got a nomination at the BFCA and other critics awards, which are better indicators than the Globes, and it's been ten years since the Globes and Oscars have matched in this category 5/5, so I think he still has a shot. I don't think Christopher Plummer is safe at all, and I really don't want Matt Damon here (since I didn't feel he was anything special in Invictus). The other three look pretty safe right now.
ReplyDeleteRemember that the Globes are not the best indicators of the Oscars. We'll wait for the SAG to see what happens.